Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday night kicks off with an anticipated matchup between the 30-10 Golden State Warriors against the 26-17 Milwaukee Bucks.
numberFire’s model is anticipating a close game with the Bucks winning by an average score of 2.3 points and coming out on top at a 58.6% probability.
That makes the Bucks’ moneyline (-116) a two-star play, meaning the model here suggests a two-unit bet on the Bucks.
Over the past 10 games, the Warriors are just 6-4 with a spread-adjusted point differential of -1.3, and the Bucks are about the same: 6-4 with a spread-adjusted point differential of -1.5.
In two games with Stephen Curry but without Draymond Green, the Warriors have a medium-to-very-high-leverage net rating of -1.0. The Bucks — with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton but without Jrue Holiday — actually have a net rating of -4.11.
However, accounting for pace and home-court, my model views the expected spread as a pick ’em, so it also would lean toward the Bucks.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies are so hot right now. They’re on a 10-game win streak and now run into a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is just 5-5 over their past 10.
numberFire’s model is loving the Grizz for tonight. It’s viewing their moneyline (-162) as a full-on, five-star suggestion. Their win probability is 80.5% (way higher than my model’s 59.7%, for what it’s worth). That 80.5% mark thwarts their implied moneyline odds of 61.8%.
The algo here also loves the Grizzlies (-4.0) to cover. They’re 63.4% likely to cover, which leads to a 21.0% expected return.
Among the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire’s database, teams representing the Grizzlies won at a 64.0% clip (still outperforming the moneyline odds).
Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets will be without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Joe Harris, but that’s all right.
In games without them but with James Harden, the Nets are 3-1 with a non-garbage net rating of +6.5 and an offensive rating of 121.1.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, even with key assets healthy, have a medium-to-very-high-leverage net rating of -8.6 and an offensive rating of just 101.9.
That, via my model, suggests a spread of 8.5 in favor of the Nets; the actual spread for the Nets is -5.5.
numberFire’s model loves the Brooklyn side here. It views their spread as a four-star play and their moneyline (-210) as a five-star play.